JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – After a big lull for much of late July and August, it appears the tropics will likely become more active.
The National Hurricane Center is watching three different areas of interest, two of which have a decent chance of development.
The Gulf region
Meteorologists are watching a disorganized area currently near the Turks and Caicos.
It is expected to drift westward and remained disorganized over the next several days, but could organize further in the Gulf.
Once in the Gulf, it would likely move westward, potentially impacting Texas or Mexico.
At this time, the National Hurricane Center is giving this area a low chance of development.
The Open Atlantic
There are two areas of interest in the open Atlantic, both of which could become tropical depressions in the coming days.
The first one is a disorganized complex of showers and storms about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and the west coast of Africa.
Computer models do develop this system, and the area could be a tropical depression in the next couple of days.
Right now, the National Hurricane Center is giving the region a medium chance of development.
Behind it, a much large tropical wave exists just south of the Cabo Verde islands.
While this area is large, the showers and storms associated with it remain disorganized.
Computer models are also aggressive on development, and this second area could be a tropical depression by the weekend.
Longer-range computer models indicate both systems would likely turn to the northwest and stay out to sea.
More activity ahead?
It is almost certain more areas of interest will be on the map in the coming days and weeks.
We are now rapidly approaching the peak of hurricane season, with the bulk of hurricane activity developing in late August, September and October.
The statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is September 10.
With numerous areas of interest already, and record warm temperatures across much of the tropical Atlantic, the likelihood of additional areas, and possible tropical complexes, is very likely.
This is also in line with many of the updated hurricane forecasts, with both Colorado State University and NOAA forecasting an above-average hurricane season.
After a bit of a lull, the tropics are becoming active again. While neither of these three systems are a concern for the region at this time, it is a strong signal that we nearing the peak of hurricane season and residents should pay attention to future forecasts in the coming weeks.