At 11 p.m. the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 86.4 West. The depression is nearly stationary, and little overall movement is expected through Sunday. A slow, generally northward, motion is expected to begin on Monday. On the forecast track, the center will move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the system is likely to become a tropical storm on Sunday. The system could then become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb or 29.68 inches.
Tropical Depression Ten is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches, across portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Across western Cuba, rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, are expected. This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides across western Cuba.
Heavy rainfall is also likely to impact portions of the Gulf Coast and portions of the Southeast by mid to late next week.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions of the warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area over western Cuba beginning on Sunday. Locally we will feel the brunt of the effect Wednesday.
Keep a watchful eye on Tropical Depression 10. It is projected to strengthen and shift northward into the SE Gulf of Mexico by early next week. This system may then accelerate towards the FL panhandle, Big Bend, or Nature Coast on Wednesday as a Tropical Storm or potentially a Hurricane before reaching land. There is still uncertainty with the overall track, intensity and local impacts. Models are beginning to come into better agreement. The potential hazards for NE FL and SE GA at this time are heavy rainfall, localized flooding, elevated rip currents, elevated seas and gusty winds for midweek.
Use the dry days ahead to prepare your property for tropical wind and rain and don’t forget to check your hurricane supplies.