NOAA’s full winter forecast comes out in November, but they have just released a preliminary outlook for what is expected which hinges much on the state of El Niño.
The report keeps a 95% chance of El Niño lasting through winter months, leading to more rain events across our area and near normal temperatures for Florida.
Over the South and along the Atlantic coast into southern New England, the forecast calls for greater chances of a wetter than normal winter, said NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. However, areas in the central parts of the country could see greater chances of below-normal precipitation.
The wetter-than-average weather is associated with low pressure systems that typically track out of the Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast.
The extra rain can be beneficial during the winter helping to mitigate wildfire dangers but it can also add extra punch to winter storms.
Many of Florida’s worst tornado outbreaks happened during El Niño years which favor stronger Florida tornadoes with 2 or higher on the Enhanced Fujita scale.
Florida’s deadliest tornado outbreak on record happened in central Florida during the winter of 1998. The strong El Niño intensified a cold front that triggered 12 tornadoes leaving 42 people dead and injuring hundreds more in a tail of $100 million in damage.
The El Niño pool of warm ocean waters off the coast of Peru can also send us warmer winter conditions by diverting the polar jet stream northward which reduces cold air outbreaks.