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What is the cut-off low coming our way?

It ends our perfect weather- transitions to Nor’easter

A meandering upper level low pressure will move slowly across Florida resulting in cool rain and clouds. It becomes cut-off from the jet's steering flow.

JACKSONVILLE,FL – After a dry sunny week get set for several cloudy and wet days beginning Sunday afternoon. The feature ending the great weather is a slow moving cut-off low.

Unlike regular weather systems steered by jet streams, cut-off lows detach from the jet leaving a meandering low that brings prolonged rain and clouds that can last for days.

These features are not common around Florida since the jet stream is typically across higher latitudes. But a dip in the flow will send one our way this weekend.

The impacts of cut-off lows in the winter bring slightly cooler air. Cut-off lows in summer tap into warm, moist air, triggering heavy rainfall, and potentially leading to flooding. Tropical systems can also develop if the storms stay over warm ocean temperatures.

Step 1: Energy rides along the jet stream bending it southward.
Step 3: The upper low gets cut off leaving areas of rain underneath.

In either season, we can expect to have increased cloud cover and precipitation: This is the most likely impact, ranging from drizzle to heavy downpours depending on the factors mentioned above.

Next week, a cut-off low is predicted to sit over Florida for the early part of the week resulting in gray, breezy, and damp conditions.

Once it moves farther into the Atlantic it will spin up a powerful local Nor’easter Tuesday and Wednesday with winds gusting to 40 mph and significant coastal erosion along the east coast for the first week in February.

Offshore Gale will enhance the erosion and large waves in the coastal waters of Florida in the first week of February.

About the Author
Mark Collins headshot

After covering the weather from every corner of Florida and doing marine research in the Gulf, Mark Collins settled in Jacksonville to forecast weather for The First Coast.

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