It’s tough to talk about droughts when it’s raining outside, but on Thursday, March 21, NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) released their Spring Outlook 2024, and in addition to the drought and rain forecast, they talked about above-average temperatures and the flooding potential across the country.
The heat is on
Of those three big topics, the one that will affect Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia the most is... (drum roll, please)... you got it — above-average temperatures.
While this seems like an obvious answer for our region, NOAA says “above-average temperatures are likely to persist across much of the U.S.”. Looking at the Seasonal Temperature Outlook, all of Georgia is in the “Above” range, and just a bit of the border counties in Florida.
In March, April and May of 2023, the recorded high temperature was 90 degrees. So far, in March 2024, the official high is holding at 88 degrees with only nine days left in the month. We can expect a warmer April and May as El Nino lingers through April.
Rain, rain go away
It’s a domino effect, really. When warmer weather happens, rain and thunderstorms happen, too. In 2023, Jacksonville officially recorded 3.33″ in March, 3.05″ in April and 5.68″ in May. So far, in 2024, we’ve had 4.02″ in January and 2.44″ in February. Both are well above their 2023 months (2.18″ and 1.42″ respectively). If this trend were to keep up, we’d be well above our 58.61″ total for 2023. El Nino and thus an impeding La Nina can be attributed to the increased chances of precipitation.
Floods & drought aren’t in the forecast
With the increased rain in early 2024, the chances of a drought are slim. According to NOAA, “the overall lack of snowpack and significant winter precipitation” will prevent the impact of major flooding to all populations since the spring outlook of 2021. Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia remain in the minor flood category due to the number of waterways in our region.