Living in Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia, severe weather, including tropical storms and hurricanes, is never far from our thoughts. June 1 and the start of hurricane season is right around the corner, and that means the predictions for the 2024 season are starting to roll in.
AccuWeather released its “explosive Atlantic hurricane season” predictions and they are staggering. Paul Pastelok, Senior Meteorologist & Lead U.S. Long Range Forecaster for AccuWeather, said there’s a “10-15% chance we could get close to the record of 30 named storms” during the 2024 hurricane season. The most active hurricane season on record was in 2020 with 31 cyclones, with only one that wasn’t a named storm.
In 2023, AccuWeather predicted 11 to 14 named storms, 4 to 8 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes. The numbers below show the actual 2023 numbers and they were mostly accurate even though there ended up being 19 named storms, only 4 had direct U.S. impacts. However, they are predicting 20-25 named storms in 2024. If their prediction was below the actual number in 2023, what can we expect in 2024?
How do they know?
Warm water in the southern Gulf of Mexico and southwest Atlantic Ocean are prime areas of concern for the AccuWeather team of forecasters when predicting the number of named storms for 2024. According to the release, “the Atlantic water temperatures observed in March were around or even warmer than they were in March ahead of the blockbuster 2005 and 2020 hurricane seasons.” This is a major concern and when paired with lower wind shear due to La Nina, the direction and intensity of the storms are likely to develop and point towards the U.S.. Areas of most concern are the Texas coast, Florida Panhandle, South Florida and the Carolinas.
In addition to carefully monitoring the water temperatures, AccuWeather forecasters have other tools to assist with their predictions, such as:
- Long range models
- Past history
- Statistical data
- Matching current patterns
- Continuously watching
- Ocean water temperatures
- Atlantic basin vertical shear
What happens if there are more than 21 named storms?
Historically, once the yearly list of names was exhausted, the protocol was to use the Greek alphabet. That was changed in 2021 to add more names because the Greek names were too confusing, according to Pastelok. The new list has yet to be used. Name lists are rotated every six years, and in 2024, two names are being replaced after being retired after those named hurricanes caused severe destruction in 2018 - Francine replaced Florence and Milton replaced Michael.
More predictions on the way
The season of predictions has us anxiously awaiting the forecast from both NOAA and Colorado State University, who will release its first forecast on Thursday, April 4th at 10 a.m. EST.