JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – We are tracking two trouble spots in the Tropics.
One of them will help replenish our rainfall deficit and rinse out our rain gauges. The other will bring more rain to parts of Mexico.
Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located about 175 miles north-northeast of the Bahamas has become a little better organized. However, earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicated that the system does not have a well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions could allow for additional development and this system could become a tropical depression Friday. The system is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast early Friday. Keep an eye on this developing low and monitor the progress and changes. Air Force Reserve aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow morning. Rainfall amounts will average 0.50 to 2 inches for Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia. Our current seasonal rainfall deficit is a little over 2 inches.
Formation chance through 48 hours is up to 50%. Formation chance through seven days also increased to 50%.
Our other area of tropical interest is trying to form on the heels of Tropical Storm Alberto. An area of low pressure is expected to form over southeastern Mexico on Friday. Environmental conditions will allow for gradual development after this system moves over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday. A tropical depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend while it moves toward Mexico.
Formation chance through 48 hours is 30%. Formation chance through 7 days is 60%.