Since becoming a depression earlier this afternoon, convection continues. The center of circulation remains on the eastern side, but the system is gradually becoming better organized with banding features.
Intensity estimates have increased and the depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Beryl. Tropical Storm Beryl is one of only a few storms in history that have formed over the central or eastern tropical Atlantic this early in the year.
Tropical Storm Beryl is moving westward at 18 mph. This should keep Beryl moving swiftly westward to west-northwestward during the next few days with model guidance tightly clustered as the system moves towards the Windward Islands.
There is a little more spread in the model guidance beyond day 3. Based on this forecast, the system is expected to move across the Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday and track across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through the middle of next week.
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are favorable for strengthening the next few days with warm sea surface temperatures, plenty of moisture, and low vertical wind shear.
NHC intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening and shows the system becoming a hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands.
It should be noted that some model guidance is still quite aggressive and a fair amount are even higher than the official forecast.
Some hurricane models show the system becoming a major hurricane prior to reaching the Windward Islands.