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Tracking hurricane patterns: Why do hurricane tracks shift throughout the season?

The Northeast Florida & Southeast Georgia area tends to see the greatest tropical system impacts in September, October

Where hurricanes form later in the season (WJXT)

With this Saharan dust suppressing the tropics for a moment, it’s a good time to talk about why hurricane tracks differ throughout the hurricane season.

During the Atlantic Hurricane Season, hurricane tracks change monthly, generally following the same pattern year after year.

That means certain areas in the tropics tend to see a higher number of storms during certain parts of the season.

Throughout July, hurricanes tend to track into the Gulf and Caribbean, but as the season progresses, those tracks tend to move eastward into the Eastern Gulf and the Atlantic.

MORE: Tracking the Tropics interactive map | Plan & Prepare | 2024 Hurricane Guide

Hurricane Beryl, the first hurricane of the 2024 season, began its formation in the Eastern Atlantic but tracked south toward the Caribbean and curved into the Yucatan Peninsula, ultimately making landfall in Texas as a Category 1 hurricane.

Hurricane Beryl's track (WJXT)

So, why did Beryl take this particular track and not head toward the Sunshine State?

Well, the short answer is steering flow.

You’ve heard The Weather Authority say it many times: Warm water favors thunderstorm organization.

But because the Atlantic is larger and deeper than the Gulf, more energy is needed to heat the Atlantic.

So during this time of the year, it’s likely to see the majority of hurricane tracks in the Caribbean and Gulf, where waters are warmer.

Where hurricanes form early in the season (WJXT)

In the later parts of the season, when the Atlantic is warmer, you start to see tracks shift toward the eastern Atlantic.

That’s why our area tends to see its strongest hurricane impacts in September and October.

But once a storm system organizes into a tropical cyclone what moves it along?

The Bermuda High plays a huge role in steering these storms westward.

A stronger Bermuda High leads to hurricanes that push further west before they curve north.

When the ridge is weak, gaps may develop, allowing systems to track northward in the Atlantic.

Now, because water temperatures are abnormally high for this time of the year, and with the help of a La Niña phase, the National Weather Service has predicted an abnormally high number of named storms for this season.

RELATED: Colorado State University experts increase hurricane forecast for 2024 season

So, The Weather Authority will be keeping a close eye on the tropics to make sure we can give you the most accurate information, so you and your loved ones can stay safe.


About the Authors
Mark Collins headshot

After covering the weather from every corner of Florida and doing marine research in the Gulf, Mark Collins settled in Jacksonville to forecast weather for The First Coast.

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