JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the southwest coast of the Florida peninsula, from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach, as the now Tropical Depression 4 approaches the state, according to the National Hurricane Center.
In addition, a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas, the southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge, and for the west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka.
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the west coast of the Florida peninsula from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.
What has changed?
The wave is expected to develop a circulation over the weekend so the name has been changed from Invest 97 to Tropical Depression 4. As of Friday afternoon, TD 4, is causing 25-30 mph winds over the southeastern Bahamas as it tracks westward across Cuba on Friday.
According to the 5 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center, the anticipated track of the storm has shifted west and Northeast Florida will likely feel the strongest impacts on Monday morning.
In the latest model, Key West will start to get heavy rain between 2 p.m. and 2 a.m. on Saturday and as the bands of the storm move up the west coast of Florida on Sunday, Tampa and Sarasota could see extremely heavy rainfall. But the storm is not expected to make landfall until it hits Cedar Key in the Big Bend region either late Sunday or early Monday morning.
It’s anticipated it will then cut across the state into Columbia, Bradford and Baker counties and exit in Brunswick. That would put Jacksonville and most of our area on the wet side of the storm, which could mean anywhere from 3 to 6 inches of rain for some areas due to the potential slowdown and shift west.
Impacts for Jacksonville
We will have a nice beach day on Saturday as the wave will be approaching the Florida Keys with 20-25 mph gusts and frequent showers by Saturday evening.
Sunday evening should be rainy with breezy conditions and potentially heavier rain into Monday.
The GFS ensemble model keeps the intensity under 40 mph as it tracks into Florida somewhere near the Keys to the west coast of Florida on Saturday. Those black lines are tropical depression force which is not much concern for causing damage. The window to intensify will be short since it will spend much of its time over Cuba and Florida. If it tracks toward the Big Bend it may become Tropical Storm Debby (green lines) due to more time over the Gulf water.
I see no ideal setup for rapid intensification into a hurricane due to moderate shear and slightly less than adequate mid-level moisture. However, intensity models do bring it to hurricane strength once it emerges into the Atlantic offshore the Carolinas Tuesday when the threat will be long gone from the First Coast.