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CSU has reduced the number of predicted named storms this season. What that means for our area

Colorado State University reduced the number of predicted named storms from 25 to 23

Wednesday morning visible satellite of Tropical Storm Debby off the coast of South Carolina. Credit: NOAA.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – In April, Colorado State University (CSU) released its much-anticipated hurricane forecast, and it was a doozy!

Four months later, CSU has now pulled back on its predictions slightly.

The Latest: Tropical Storm Debby hovers off the coast of the Carolinas

On Tuesday, CSU released the first of six two-week forecasts.

The forecasts are meant to inform the public about the possibilities of future hurricanes.

“We issue these forecasts to satisfy the curiosity of the public and to bring attention to the hurricane problem,” CSU said in a news release a day after Hurricane Debby made landfall in Florida.

CSU is forecasting 23 named storms, with 11 expected to intensify into hurricanes, including 5 reaching major status.

While the numbers are staggering, CSU was quick to assure the public that “it is impossible to precisely predict this season’s hurricane activity in early August.”

Why so wishy-washy?

The fourth named storm of the season, Hurricane Debby, a Category 1 storm, made landfall in the Florida Panhandle early Monday morning.

In the new report, CSU reduced the number of predicted named storms from 25 (which was increased on July 25 after Hurricane Chris formed on July 1) to 23, which happened to be the original number from April 4.

Confidence remains high that the environment for tropical cyclone formation is consistent with initial readings in April, such as the warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures and increase in La Nina activity.

CSU stresses that the seasonal forecasts are “based on statistical and dynamical models which will fail in some years.”

Merriam-Webster defines “predict” as ‘foretell on the basis of observation, experience, or scientific reason’. Unfortunately, we don’t have a crystal ball to tell us either when or where a hurricane will hit and sadly, it only takes one to make it an active season.

Here’s an abbreviated list of impact probabilities for some of our counties from CSU with historical data:

CSU Impact Probabilities - St. Johns
CSU Impact Probabilities - Duval
CSU Impact Probabilities - Glynn
CSU Impact Probabilities - Nassau
CSU Impact Probabilities - Camden

The prediction released Tuesday didn’t change much else besides the number of named storms.

That means there are still possibly 19 named storms left in the season, which is officially over on Nov. 30; six (up from five originally in April) of those are predicted to be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5).

These numbers include the four 2024 named storms to date: Alberto, Beryl, Chris and Debby.


About the Author
Michelle McCormick headshot

Michelle McCormick joined News4Jax in December 2023 and in February 2024, she happily accepted the opportunity to officially join the News4Jax Weather Authority team as the weekend morning meteorologist. She is a member of both the American Meteorological Society and National Weather Association.

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