After looking quite ragged this morning, Ernesto’s made a comeback. A burst of convection that began after the last advisory has wrapped around the western side of the hurricane and the eye has also tried to clear. The structural improvement in Ernesto was also seen from the last couple of Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter fixes which indicated the eyewall definition had improved while remaining quite large. This improved eyewall can also be seen on radar imagery out of Bermuda.
Something cool, Saildrone SD-1068 appears to currently be in the northwest eyewall of Ernesto and recently reported wind gusts of hurricane-force and significant wave heights up to 36 feet.
Ernesto has maintained a north-northeast track this afternoon. While Ernesto will remain steered by a subtropical ridge to its southeast, it is still forecast to temporarily slow its north-northeastward motion. There is not much change to the track guidance just perhaps a touch slower after the next 24 hours and the NHC track forecast lies very close to the prior one. Based on the latest track, Ernesto’s large eye will likely be very near or over Bermuda tomorrow morning.
Intensity-wise, the model guidance continues to show weakening in the short term as it battles wind shear.
Ernesto is expected to bring a prolonged period of strong winds and storm surge on Bermuda and is expected to continue through Saturday night. A hurricane warning is in effect for the island.
Heavy rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to impact Bermuda through Saturday and will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island.
East Coast swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect the area through the weekend with a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents.