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The ‘cone of uncertainty’ gets facelift to emphasize inland watches, warnings

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) began using its new experimental cone graphic Thursday to emphasize inland watches and warnings.

This is the biggest change to the cone product since 2017.

While there currently isn’t a Tropical Cyclone threatening the United States, the new graphic is expected to help the National Weather Service communicate the threat when needed.

According to the NHC website, the following describes the major updates:

  1. The current operational version of the cone graphic only shows tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in a line along portions of the coast that may be affected. The experimental version will add a depiction of these watches and warnings for inland areas in the continental United States, in addition to those in effect along the coast.
  2. Watches and warnings in effect for land areas will take visual precedence over the cone in the experimental version. This is because tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings actually convey the risk of strong winds from a tropical cyclone and should be the primary information used by decision-makers to assess their wind risk before a storm. The cone itself does not convey the risk of strong winds, and only looking at that component of the graphic can be misleading.
  3. The current cone graphic shows white transparent shading to depict the forecast track uncertainty for the first three days of the forecast, and then white stippling for the four- and five-day portion of the forecast. Since there isn’t really anything special between the early and latter parts of the forecast, the experimental version will instead use white transparent shading with a solid white outline for the entire forecast cone.

The NHC is encouraging feedback on the new graphic. Your input can be included in their survey which expires June 30, 2025.


About the Author
Michelle McCormick headshot

Michelle McCormick joined News4Jax in December 2023 and in February 2024, she happily accepted the opportunity to officially join the News4Jax Weather Authority team as the weekend morning meteorologist. She is a member of both the American Meteorological Society and National Weather Association.

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