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A look at how next week’s tropical development may unfold

A timeline on realistic impacts

Next week a tropical cyclone could develop in the orange area. The Formation chance will likely increase after the weekend.

JACKSONVILLE, FL – At the moment, there is no system in the northwestern Caribbean or the southern Gulf of Mexico, but clouds may begin to organize into a tropical cyclone early next week.

It is still too early to predict any impacts on the Gulf Coast states or to determine the storm’s path. If this sounds unclear, it’s because there is currently no system to track, and making any prediction unreliable at this point.

Until there is a disturbance for weather models to focus on, they can only raise cautionary signals that something may form, without providing any precise details. Both the GFS and ECMWF have been suggesting this for days.

Models may target thunderstorms that could drift up from the monsoon trough lying across Central America.

Dashed line is the monsoon trough representing a change in wind direction that converge along the trough leading to rising air and increased thunderstorms.

One of the main factors that could lead to tropical storm development is a large, slow-spinning area of low pressure known as the Central America Gyre. This gyre forms over the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico and creates favorable conditions for storms to develop. As the gyre rotates, it helps draw in warm, moist air from the monsoon trough, which fuels storm formation.

When active, the gyre acts like a breeding ground for storms, making it easier for them to grow and potentially intensify.

Central American Gyre is more established toward late fall or early spring.

Monday and Tuesday will be important to watch for predicting where a tropical storm may head. For example, if the initial showers and thunderstorms gather west of or near the Yucatan Peninsula, storm development may struggle. However, if these storms shift slightly east into the very warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean, development and organization could happen more quickly next week.

As of Friday, the European model predicts a slower storm forming in the western Gulf, while the GFS model indicates a faster and stronger storm developing closer to the northwestern Caribbean and tracking toward Florida.

Storms in October have historically formed in the orange areas and focus near Florida.

Next week will provide more clarity on which scenario might unfold. In the meantime, enjoy the weekend and stay informed, but there’s no need for alarm. Let’s hope the end of next week doesn’t confirm these early model suggestions.


About the Author
Mark Collins headshot

After covering the weather from every corner of Florida and doing marine research in the Gulf, Mark Collins settled in Jacksonville to forecast weather for The First Coast.

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