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Chance of Tropical Development Increasing, Path remains Uncertain

Keep an eye on the Tropics

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The chance of tropical development decreases across the Atlantic while a system could take shape in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

In the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southern Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure could form by the early to middle part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Gradual development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week.

Formation chance through 48 hours remains at 0 percent, while the formation chance through 7 days has increased to 60 percent.

The weakening systems in the Atlantic:

Remnants of Gordon: Showers and thunderstorms have been displaced farther away from the center of the remnants of Gordon.

Development of this system is not expected while it meanders over the central subtropical Atlantic during the next couple of days.

Invest AL 96 in the Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic: An area of low pressure located about 650 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Conditions do not appear conducive for significant development of this system during the next couple of days while it drifts northwestward at about 5 mph over the central or western subtropical Atlantic.


About the Author
Richard Nunn headshot

Richard Nunn is the Weather Authority Chief Meteorologist

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