JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The Latest
A mid-level circulation center of clouds and thunderstorms between Nicaragua and Jamaica has organized slightly over the weekend. Although there is not yet a surface circulation, it may develop into a tropical storm before Wednesday when it enters the Gulf of Mexico. Storms have not organized into a closed circulation center and winds are blowing around 25 to 30 mph in the eastern half. Due to the high confidence in the system acquiring tropical characteristics, the National Hurricane has issued a track for a Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.
What are the models suggesting?
Models have come in better agreement tracking closely into the eastern Gulf of Mexico well west of Naples Wednesday evening before approaching the Panhandle Thursday afternoon. Once in the Gulf the system should become a hurricane and some models take it to Category 3 strength before landfall Thursday evening. The location at this point is targeting the Florida panhandle near Applichola or the Big Bend area, but various models have a spread from Pensacola to north of the Tampa Bay area.
Water temperatures along the path are 84 degrees and wind shear and moisture levels are forecast to play a neutral role in any potential rapid intensification. It will likely have just over 24 hours once in the Gulf to grow before coming ashore Thursday night.
Impacts for the greater Jacksonville area
Monday and Tuesday stay dry with rain developing in the morning and Thursday which will likely be a Weather Authority Alert Day for the late afternoon and evening.
Based on the above track scenario, winds Thursday will start 25-30 mph with easterly gusts to 40 mph by the evening. Rain totals may be around 3-4 inches west of Highway 301 with 2-3 closer to the coast.
Specific details on the timing of the impacts won’t be known until the system forms and begins tracking northward. There are hints of potential hurricane-force gusts along I-75 on Thursday, which must be monitored.
By Friday models suggest a rapid decrease in the winds under 15 mph with only scattered showers as what is left of Hurricane Helene tracks into northern Georgia and Tennessee.