Storm expected to strengthen to Category 3 Hurricane Helene before hitting Florida Panhandle

The Latest

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – As of Tuesday at 5 a.m., the track remains nearly unchanged from Monday with landfall potential near the Florida Panhandle by Thursday evening. The only change is a slightly slower timeframe.

Hurricane hunters did not find a surface circulation overnight which keeps the disturbance as a Potential tropical cyclone with 35 mph winds.

Clouds and thunderstorms are confined between the Yucatan and Cuba with a bit of southwesterly shear over it resulting in a disorganized system.

Although there is not yet a surface circulation, it may develop into a tropical storm later today. Due to the high confidence in the system acquiring tropical characteristics, the National Hurricane has issued a track for a Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.

What are the models suggesting?

Models are in agreement tracking closely into the eastern Gulf of Mexico well west of Naples Wednesday evening before approaching the Panhandle Thursday afternoon.

Once in the Gulf, the system should become a hurricane and the NHC is forecasting it to increase to Category 3 strength right up to landfall Thursday evening.

The location at this point is targeting the Florida panhandle near Apalachicola or the Big Bend area, but various models have been spread from Panama City to north of Homosassa Springs.

Although the system is not moving much now, it is expected to move quickly in the gulf without stalling. This will bring higher winds farther inland which could result in hurricane-force winds up to I-75 and beyond I-10 into Georgia west of Waycross. It will likely have just over 24 hours once in the Gulf to grow before coming ashore Thursday night.

Impacts for the greater Jacksonville area

Today and most of Wednesday stay dry with rain developing in the morning on Thursday, which will likely be a Weather Authority Alert Day for the late afternoon and evening. Morning rain could come with gusts to 30 mph with a midday lull in showers. Heavier rainbands pick up in the afternoon with the heaviest arriving in the evening.

Based on the above track scenario, winds Thursday will start 25-30 mph with easterly gusts to 40 mph by the afternoon. Coastal areas will have sustained 40 mph winds through the evening with inland locations gusting to 50-65 mph from 5 pm through 1 am. Rain totals may be around 3-4 inches west of Highway 301 with 2-3 inches closer to the coast. Inland Georgia could get 5 inches.

Areas including Alachua, Union, Bradford, Baker, and Columbia counties in northeast Florida are projected to experience the bulk of the storm. Inland areas around Charlton, Brantley, Ware County, and along the I-75 corridor will also be significantly affected. Wind gusts could exceed 90 mph, with Gainesville experiencing winds in the upper 60 to lower 70 mph range. Tornado watches may be issued across the region from late Wednesday night into early Friday.

There is a strong potential for hurricane-force gusts along I-75 on Thursday, which must be monitored.

By Friday models suggest a rapid decrease in the winds under 15 mph with only scattered showers as what is left of Hurricane Helene tracks into northern Georgia and Tennessee.

Preparation and safety

The Weather Authority urges residents to complete their storm preparations by Wednesday. While Thursday will mostly be spent under various watches and warnings, conditions are expected to improve by early Friday as dry air moves in. This will limit flooding but breezy conditions will persist.

Residents are also advised to be prepared for possible cleanup activities following the storm. Keep an eye on the latest forecasts and updates for any potential changes.

Share your weather photos and videos

Stay connected and share your weather photos and videos on SnapJAX by visiting SnapJAX.