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JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – As of Tuesday at 11 p.m., the National Hurricane Center announced that Tropical Storm Helene had formed over the northwestern Caribbean.
Hurricane and storm surge watches remain in effect for portions of the Florida Gulf Coast. The Big Bend region is expected to see 12-15 feet of storm surge while the Jacksonville coast is expected to get 1-3 feet.
Helene currently has 60 mph maximum sustained winds and is moving northwest at 10 mph. That general motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday.
A northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected on Wednesday and Thursday.
On the forecast track, the center of Helene will move across the far northwestern Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night, and then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and Thursday, potentially reaching the Gulf coast of Florida late Thursday.
Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday.
Continued strengthening is anticipated after that time, and Helene could become a major hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles to the east of the center. Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
What are the models suggesting?
Models are in agreement tracking closely into the eastern Gulf of Mexico well west of Naples Wednesday night before approaching the Panhandle Thursday afternoon.
Once in the Gulf, the system should become a hurricane and the NHC is forecasting it to increase to Category 3 strength right up to landfall Thursday evening around Florida’s Big Bend area.
The system is expected to move quickly in the Gulf without stalling. This will bring higher winds farther inland which could result in hurricane-force winds up to I-75 and beyond I-10 into Georgia west of Waycross. It will likely have just over 24 hours once in the Gulf to grow before coming ashore Thursday night.
11 am EDT - Tropical Storm #Helene forms. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches in effect for portions of Florida. Here are the Key Messages. https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb pic.twitter.com/O2vrmnsReN
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) September 24, 2024
Impacts for the greater Jacksonville area
Tuesday and most of Wednesday stay dry with rain developing in the morning on Thursday, which will likely be a Weather Authority Alert Day for the late afternoon and evening. Morning rain could come with gusts to 30 mph with a midday lull in showers. Heavier rainbands pick up in the afternoon with the heaviest arriving in the evening.
Based on the above track scenario, winds Thursday will start 25-30 mph with easterly gusts to 40 mph by the late afternoon. Coastal areas will have sustained 40 mph winds through the evening with inland locations gusting to 55-65 mph from 5 pm through 1 am.
Areas including Alachua, Union, Bradford, Baker, and Columbia counties in northeast Florida are projected to experience the bulk of the storm. Inland areas around Charlton, Brantley, Ware County, and along the I-75 corridor will also be significantly affected. Wind gusts could exceed 90 mph, with Gainesville experiencing winds in the upper 60 to lower 70 mph range. Tornado watches may be issued across the region from late Wednesday night into early Friday.
There is a strong potential for hurricane-force gusts along I-75 on Thursday, which must be monitored.
The map below shows hurricane winds in the white color streak with a very realistic top-end gust range between 55 mph over many parts of NE FL and 66-75 mph gusts in central southern Georgia.
By Friday models suggest a rapid decrease in the winds under 20 mph with only scattered showers as what is left of Hurricane Helene tracks into northern Georgia and Tennessee.
Rain totals may be around 3-4 inches west of Highway 301 with 2 inches closer to the coast. Inland Georgia could get 4-5 inches.
Preparation and safety
The Weather Authority urges residents to complete their storm preparations by Wednesday. While Thursday will mostly be spent under various watches and warnings, conditions are expected to improve by early Friday as dry air moves in. This will limit flooding but breezy conditions will persist.
Residents are also advised to be prepared for possible cleanup activities following the storm. Keep an eye on the latest forecasts and updates for any potential changes.
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