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As of this morning at 5 a.m., the National Hurricane Center showed Tropical Storm Helene was strengthening and was likely to become a hurricane later today.
Helene is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph, followed by a general northward motion beginning later today and continuing through Friday.
On the forecast track, the center of Helene will pass near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and tomorrow, and reach the Big Bend coast of Florida late tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are now near 65 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane later today. The storm is forecast to rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and become a major hurricane tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center. A Mexican Navy weather station at Isla Contoy recently reported sustained winds of 38 mph and a wind gust of 48 mph.The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 985 mb.
What are the models suggesting?
Models are in agreement tracking closely into the eastern Gulf of Mexico well west of Naples tonight before approaching the Panhandle tomorrow afternoon.
Once in the Gulf, the system should become a hurricane and the NHC is forecasting it to increase to Category 3 strength right up to landfall Thursday evening around Florida’s Big Bend area.
The system is expected to move quickly in the Gulf without stalling. This will bring higher winds farther inland which could result in hurricane-force winds up to I-75 and beyond I-10 into Georgia west of Waycross. It will likely have just over 24 hours once in the Gulf to grow before coming ashore Thursday night.
Impacts for the greater Jacksonville area
Most of today will stay dry with rain developing overnight, and into the morning tomorrow, which will likely be a Weather Authority Alert Day for the late afternoon and evening. Morning rain could come with gusts to 30 mph with a midday lull in showers. Heavier rainbands pick up in the afternoon with the heaviest arriving in the evening.
Based on the above track scenario, winds Thursday will start 25-30 mph with easterly gusts to 40 mph by the late afternoon. Coastal areas will have sustained 40 mph winds through the evening with inland locations gusting to 55-65 mph from 5 pm through 1 am.
Areas including Alachua, Union, Bradford, Baker, and Columbia counties in northeast Florida are projected to experience the bulk of the storm. Inland areas around Charlton, Brantley, Ware County, and along the I-75 corridor will also be significantly affected. Wind gusts could exceed 90 mph, with Gainesville experiencing winds in the upper 60 to lower 70 mph range. Tornado watches may be issued across the region from late Wednesday night into early Friday.
There is a strong potential for hurricane-force gusts along I-75 on Thursday, which must be monitored.
The map below shows hurricane winds in the white color streak with a very realistic top-end gust range between 55 mph over many parts of NE FL and 66-75 mph gusts in central southern Georgia.
By Friday models suggest a rapid decrease in the winds under 20 mph with only scattered showers as what is left of Hurricane Helene tracks into northern Georgia and Tennessee.
Rain totals may be around 3-4 inches west of Highway 301 with 2 inches closer to the coast. Inland Georgia could get 4-5 inches.
Preparation and safety
The Weather Authority urges residents to complete their storm preparations by Wednesday. While Thursday will mostly be spent under various watches and warnings, conditions are expected to improve by early Friday as dry air moves in. This will limit flooding but breezy conditions will persist.
Residents are also advised to be prepared for possible cleanup activities following the storm. Keep an eye on the latest forecasts and updates for any potential changes.
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