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JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – As of Wednesday at 11 p.m., the National Hurricane Center said Hurricane Helene is moving toward the north at 9 mph, with sustained winds upwards of 85 mph, and this motion should continue through this evening. A northward or north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next 36 hours. The track has shifted slightly west since the last update.
On the forecast track, the center of Helene is 425 miles southwest of Tampa and 465 miles from Apalachicola and is expected to reach the Big Bend of Florida by 8 p.m. Thursday.
The storm is forecast to rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and possibly become a major Category 4 hurricane carrying 130 mph winds before landfall. Previously Helene was projected to top out as a Category 3.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles.
The minimum central pressure is 972 MB.
What are the models suggesting?
Models have been steadfast on a track 150 miles west of St. Petersburg Thursday morning, followed by a landfall south of Tallahassee on Thursday evening. This would place the center about 150 miles west of Jacksonville which is close enough to feel 40 mph tropical storm gusts as early as Thursday afternoon in our area.
The storm is moving past Cancun moving into the Gulf, and could possibly reach Category 3 strength by the time it moves west of Tampa Bay.
The system is expected to move quickly in the Gulf without stalling. This will bring higher winds farther inland which could result in hurricane-force winds up to I-75 and beyond I-10 into Georgia west of Waycross. It will likely have just over 24 hours once in the Gulf to grow before coming ashore Thursday night.
Impacts for the greater Jacksonville area
A Tropical Storm Warning for all local counties means that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.
A Flood Watch is also in effect beginning at 8 p.m. Wednesday for all local counties through Friday morning. Flash flooding continues to be possible due to heavy downpours. Dangerous conditions continue along the Atlantic coast.
Models have backed off significantly on rain totals dropping to widespread 1-1.5 inches with up to 2 inches along Highway 301. Georgia could get the most with 3 to possibly 4 inches.
Thursday will be a Weather Authority Alert Day for the late afternoon and evening because of the increasing winds. Morning rain could come with gusts to 30 mph with a midday lull in showers. Heavier rainbands pick up in the afternoon with the heaviest arriving in the evening.
Based on the above track scenario, winds Thursday will start 25-30 mph with easterly gusts to 40 mph by the late afternoon. Coastal areas will have sustained 40 mph winds through the evening with inland locations gusting to 55-65 mph from 5-8 p.m. through 1 a.m. Tornadic conditions are highly likely during this time period.
There is a strong potential for hurricane-force gusts along I-75 on Thursday and near Pierce County, Georgia Thursday evening, which must be monitored.
Alachua, Union, Bradford, Baker, and Columbia counties in northeast Florida are projected to experience the bulk of the storm. Inland areas around Charlton, Brantley, Ware County, and along the I-75 corridor will also be significantly affected. Wind gusts could exceed 70 mph, with Gainesville experiencing winds in the upper 60 to lower 70 mph range. Tornado watches may be issued across the region from late Wednesday night into early Friday.
Columbia County is under a Hurricane Warning: Peak Wind Forecast is 25-35 mph with gusts to 65 mph.
By Friday models suggest a rapid decrease in the winds under 20 mph with only scattered showers as what is left of Hurricane Helene tracks into northern Georgia and Tennessee.
While Thursday will mostly be spent under various watches and warnings, conditions are expected to improve by early Friday as dry air moves in. This will limit flooding but breezy conditions will persist.
Will bridges close?
All bridges are currently open. The Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) works closely with the Jacksonville Sheriff’s Office and the Florida Highway Patrol to monitor wind conditions at area bridges. If sustained winds (not gusts) exceed specified levels, FDOT will work with law enforcement to close affected bridges. Any bridge closures will be communicated via local media channels, social media, the City website (www.jacksonville.gov) and the JaxReady mobile app.
Preparation and safety
Be sure to keep your weather alert system on throughout Thursday and into Friday morning for the latest updates.
Residents are advised to be prepared for possible cleanup activities following the storm. Keep an eye on the latest forecasts and updates for any potential changes.
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