The Latest
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – As of 6 p.m., Thursday, the National Hurricane Center said Hurricane Helene had strengthened to an “extremely dangerous” Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph and gusts up to 155 mph.
The system is just hours away from making landfall along Florida’s Big Bend on Thursday night.
Helene is expected to continue its current path, heading north-northeast at 23 mph but will speed up in the coming hours.
The storm is about 130 miles west of Tampa and about 280 miles south of Tallahassee.
RELATED | Live cams from across Florida: Watch Hurricane Helene’s impact as massive storm hits Gulf Coast | Will bridges close in Jacksonville due to Hurricane Helene? Here’s what you should know | Hurricane Helene expected to bring 3 ft. storm surge along St. Johns River; residents urged to stay inside
Helene is a very large hurricane.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles.
Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals around 20 inches.
The rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant river flooding. Numerous significant landslides are expected in steep terrain across the southern Appalachians.
After landfall, Helene is expected to turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening.
Weakening is expected after landfall, but Helene’s fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.
The Key West Naval Air Station recently reported sustained winds of 41 mph and a wind gust of 55 mph.
An observation in Sand Key recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph and a gust to 58 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 951 mb.
What are the models suggesting?
Models are locked in with the storm making landfall south of Tallahassee tonight, possibly around 10 p.m. when the northern eyewall crosses the Big Bend coastline. This would place the center about 150 miles west of Jacksonville which is close enough to feel 40 mph tropical storm gusts as early as Thursday afternoon in our area.
The system is expected to move quickly in the Gulf without stalling. This will bring higher winds farther inland which could result in hurricane-force winds up to I-75 and beyond I-10 into Georgia west of Waycross. It will likely have just over 24 hours once in the Gulf to grow before coming ashore Thursday night.
Impacts for the greater Jacksonville area
A Tropical Storm Warning for all local counties means that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.
The National Weather Service issued a Tornado Watch for all Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia counties until 10 p.m. as Hurricane Helene continues to strengthen and is forecast to bring low-level winds favorable for tornadoes.
A Flood Watch is also in effect beginning at 8 p.m. Wednesday for all local counties through Friday morning. Flash flooding continues to be possible due to heavy downpours. Dangerous conditions continue along the Atlantic coast.
Models have backed off significantly on rain totals dropping to widespread 1-1.5 inches with up to 2 inches along Highway 301. Georgia could get the most with 3 to possibly 4 inches.
Thursday is a Weather Authority Alert Day for the late afternoon and evening because of the increasing winds. Morning rain could come with gusts to 30 mph with a midday lull in showers. Heavier rainbands pick up in the afternoon with the heaviest arriving in the evening.
Based on the above track scenario, winds Thursday will start 25-30 mph with easterly gusts to 40 mph by the late afternoon. Coastal areas will have sustained 40 mph winds through the evening with inland locations gusting to 55-65 mph from 5-8 p.m. through 1 a.m. Tornadic conditions are highly likely during this time period.
There is a strong potential for hurricane-force gusts along I-75 on Thursday and near Pierce County, Georgia Thursday evening, which must be monitored. This area and east toward the coast of Georgia will be very prone to tornadoes tonight through 2 am.
Alachua, Union, Bradford, Baker, and Columbia counties in northeast Florida are projected to experience the bulk of the storm. Inland areas around Charlton, Brantley, Ware County, and along the I-75 corridor will also be significantly affected. Wind gusts could exceed 70 mph, with Gainesville experiencing winds in the upper 60 to lower 70 mph range. Tornado watches may be issued across the region from late Wednesday night into early Friday.
Columbia County is under a Hurricane Warning: Peak Wind Forecast is 40-50 mph with gusts to 75 mph.
By Friday models suggest a rapid decrease in the winds under 20 mph with only scattered showers as what is left of Hurricane Helene tracks into northern Georgia and Tennessee.
While Thursday will mostly be spent under various watches and warnings, conditions are expected to improve by early Friday as dry air moves in. This will limit flooding but breezy conditions will persist.
Will bridges close?
All bridges are currently open. The Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) works closely with the Jacksonville Sheriff’s Office and the Florida Highway Patrol to monitor wind conditions at area bridges. If sustained winds (not gusts) exceed 40 mph or more for one minute, FDOT will work with law enforcement to close affected bridges. Any bridge closures will be communicated via local media channels, social media, the City website (www.jacksonville.gov) and the JaxReady mobile app.
Very large Hurricane #Helene strengthening and expected to make landfall as a major hurricane in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. A catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely. Preparations should be rushed to completion. Here are the latest Key Messages.… pic.twitter.com/ht7XaEygSg
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) September 26, 2024
Preparation and safety
Be sure to keep your weather alert system on throughout Thursday and into Friday morning for the latest updates.
Residents are advised to be prepared for possible cleanup activities following the storm. Keep an eye on the latest forecasts and updates for any potential changes.
Download our News4Jax (N4J) Weather Authority and Hurricane Apps for up-to-the-minute notifications on what’s happening in your county.
Share your weather photos and videos
Stay connected and share your weather photos and videos on SnapJAX by visiting SnapJAX.