Kirk officially became a hurricane on Tuesday evening, but there is another area closer to home that is the one to watch: A broad trough of low pressure in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
Gradual development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form toward the end of this week or this weekend as the broader disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of Mexico.
Models are still slow to develop the low, but all models point to increasing rain chances and the potential of locally heavy rain. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
Formation chance through 48 hours is down to 0%. Formation chance through 7 days remains at 40%.
Soon to be Leslie: Invest AL91 continues to show signs of organization, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or two while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90%.