Hurricane Season continues to pick up as more disturbances continue to develop in the tropics.
We are in the peak of hurricane season, so it’s not uncommon for more disturbances and tropical storms to develop. However, there is a disturbance in the Western Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico that raises concern.
If models remain consistent, the disturbance could intensify and follow a track similar to Hurricane Helene. Florida and surrounding states do not need another storm any time soon.
TRACKING THE TROPICS
Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL90): It’s an area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and is becoming better defined. Environmental conditions are favorable for continued development. It will likely become a tropical depression. Formation chance through 48 hours is 80%. Formation chance through seven days is 90%. Sunday evening this system became Tropical Depression Twelve.
Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system could form into a tropical depression. Formation chance through 48 hours is 0%. Formation chance through seven days is 50%.
Eastern Atlantic: A low-latitude tropical wave located near the coast of western Africa is currently producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. This system could slowly develop while moving toward the westward or west-northwestward over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Formation chance through 48 hours is 0%. Formation chance through seven days is 30%.
LOCAL FORECAST
Today is partly sunny, and dry to start out. Pack the rain jackets in the kiddos backpacks, they may need them across some parts of our area on the way home. Rain chances return today and tomorrow afternoon with chances between 20% and 30%.
RIP CURRENT RISK - Moderate
LOOKING AHEAD - By Wednesday we should have a very good grasp on the direction of the disturbances that are in the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Locally, the first half of the week brings great weather with a weak cold front that will bring minor rain.