The area that we have been watching continues a trend towards a broader, weaker, and more southerly system. This system presents a risk of significant rainfall across the Florida peninsula.
The National Hurricane Center maintains a 40% likelihood of tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico over the next seven days.
This system is forecast to drift northward toward the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.
We anticipate that the earliest widespread heavy rainfall could occur on Monday, with a higher likelihood mid-week.
In addition to the potential tropical system, a surface trough across the region, coupled with a northeasterly flow developing from our north, will contribute to wet conditions across Florida and extreme South Georgia.
It is too early to determine specific potential wind and other impacts, as the influx of tropical moisture is expected to increase local rainfall chances over Florida and extreme south Georgia throughout next week.
Stay updated with the latest information from the National Hurricane Center and NWS Jacksonville, FL
We suggest you refrain from relying on any single forecast model or source, especially at this early stage in relation to the potential event.
Hurricane Kirk continues to strengthen. Kirk is located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 43.0 West.
Movement is toward the northwest near 12 mph and this is expected over the next several days with a gradual turn more to the north-northwest by the end of the week.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast and will become a major hurricane on Thursday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb or 28.94 inches.
Tropical Depression 13 has formed and will become Leslie. Tropical Depression Thirteen was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 29.1 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph and a general westward motion is expected for the next day or so followed by a turn more west-northwestward by the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression could become a tropical storm by tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb or 29.71 inches.