The area that we have been watching continues a trend towards a broader, weaker, and more southerly system. This system presents a risk of significant rainfall across the Florida peninsula.
Chances have increased...again. A 40% chance of tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico is now posted for the next seven days.
This system is forecast to drift northward toward the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend or early next week. Tropical or subtropical development could be limited by the interaction with a weak front.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula from late this weekend into next week.
Major Hurricane Kirk:. Kirk is located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 47.5 West.
Movement is toward the northwest near 10 mph and this is expected over the next several days with a gradual turn more to the north-northwest by the end of the week.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph with higher gusts.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 180 miles.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb.
Tropical Storm Leslie: is located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 32.0 West.
Leslie is moving toward the west near 5 mph. A continued westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast and Leslie is expected to become a hurricane in a couple of days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb.