Gulf of Mexico: Models continue to develop the low over the southern Gulf of Mexico Monday and Tuesday while shifting it eastward to the Peninsula Tue night.
Chances have increased from 40 to 50 percent over the 7 day period. The current models show it heading toward the central or southern FL Peninsula by Wednesday and tracking it offshore of the FL east coast on Thursday. There is a high degree of uncertainty on intensity and the track of this system.
This system also may interact with frontal boundaries, which may increase the expected rainfall amounts into our forecast area.
Keep an eye on this system and weekend updates as model forecasts are differing with regard to placement of the low and the potential path.
Formation chance through 48 hours is now 10 percent and the formation chance through 7 days is up to 50 percent.
Hurricane Kirk: The category 4 storm was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 48.9 West.
Kirk is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph. A turn toward the north and north-northeast at a faster forward speed is anticipated over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph with higher gusts. Small intensity fluctuations are possible today and tonight. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and continue through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 939 mb or 27.73 inches.
Tropical Storm Leslie: The center was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 33.0 West.
Leslie is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn
toward the northwest and an increase in forward speed early Sunday into Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast, and Leslie is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb or 29.42 inches.