JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Hurricane Milton is expected to fluctuate in intensity over the next day but will remain extremely dangerous through landfall in Florida late Wednesday night, and Thursday morning.
As of 11 p.m. Tuesday, Hurricane Milton was packing sustained winds of 160 mph with higher gusts as a Category 5 storm and the track shifted slightly south.
Milton wobbled earlier on Tuesday, but the longer-term motion is toward the east-northeast near 12 mph. Milton is now about 405 miles southwest of Tampa.
While the winds have decreased by 5 mph since the 8 p.m. update, the forward speed has increased to 12 mph from earlier in the day when it was 9 mph. This is reflected in the new track that was issued at 11 p.m.
On the forecast track, the center of Milton is forecast to move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday night, and move off the east coast of Florida over the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.
The most recent minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 915 MB.
Because Milton is a more compact storm, it is harder to predict because its speed, strength and track can shift very quickly.
Be sure to follow our updates on each advisory because things could change fast with this storm, and we want you to be safe.
Watches and warnings for Florida
Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the east coast of Florida from Port Canaveral northward to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River, including the St. Johns River. Hurricane Warning has been issued for the east coast of Florida from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach. Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the southeast coast of Florida south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line to Flamingo, and for the northeast coast of Florida north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River. Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Sebastian Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line, as well as the mouth of the St. Mary’s River to Edisto Beach Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River Tropical Storm Watch Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of life-threatening flash, urban and aerial flooding along with moderate to major river flooding.
- Locally: The lowest accumulation of rain begins in Southeast Georgia and increases closer to Flagler, Putnam and Volusia counties. Flash flooding probabilities range from 15 to 40% with Southeast Georgia at the lowest risk and counties south of I-10 and along the coast with the highest chances.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions could begin along the east coast of Florida in the watch areas on Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Florida beginning early Wednesday and will spread northward through the day.
- Tropical storm force winds are at a minimum of 39 mph, sustained for at least 60 seconds and up to 73 mph. Anything above 73 mph is considered hurricane-force winds. Arrival time for winds could start as soon as late Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning, well before the eye makes landfall.
SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.