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Chances of a tropical cyclone in the next 7 days continue to decrease

NHC 2pm Thursday

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – While most of the weather talk has shifted to winter-like temperatures and whistling winds, the tropics continue to make waves.

Even though the National Hurricane Center (NHC) keeps downgrading Invest AL94, the low-pressure system remains disorganized as it barrels quickly westward to west-northwestward around 20 mph, expecting to pass near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday; then near Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday.

Hurricane Hunters flew over the system on Thursday, but upper-level winds are expected to weaken chances of development by the end of the weekend. There’s a 20-30% chance of formation over the next 2-7 days.

The second area of low pressure remains a cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea. Gradual development is still in the low range at 30% over the next 2-7 days. This system will bring heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend.


About the Author
Michelle McCormick headshot

Michelle McCormick joined News4Jax in December 2023 and in February 2024, she happily accepted the opportunity to officially join the News4Jax Weather Authority team as the weekend morning meteorologist. She is a member of both the American Meteorological Society and National Weather Association.

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