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Are extended hurricane models on to something? We are still watching the Caribbean — again

Possible early November development

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Extended tropical models continue to hint at what could be a threat to the Caribbean and Florida in the next 9-12 days. Currently, there has not been any consistency from model run to model run, nor do other models pick up on the potential tropical low.

The GFS (Global Forecast System) has been hinting at possible tropical development in the Caribbean for the last week or so.

This article is not intended to alarm you, but to alert you and let you know we are watching and monitoring each model run for the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

This area of the Caribbean is a hot spot for tropical development in November and has been the starting point of more than half of the storms this year, including Alberto, Beryl, Debby, Helene, Nadine, Milton and Oscar.

The current forecast from the National Hurricane Center is: Tropical Cyclone activity is not expected during the next 7 days.

I have seen and received many emails about this potential development, with images from various social media platforms. There is not a cone, spaghetti model, or storm in the Caribbean.

Please be wary of images and information on these various platforms.

Hurricane season ends on Nov. 30.


About the Author
Richard Nunn headshot

Richard Nunn is the Weather Authority Chief Meteorologist

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