For the last few days the GFS (Global Forecast System) has been hinting at possible tropical development in the Caribbean around the end of the month or the beginning of November.
The Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico was the starting point of Alberto, Beryl, Debby, Helene and Milton.
No two model runs have had the same output or even the same timing or placement and so far, only the GFS is picking up on the possible tropical development.
The current forecast from the national Hurricane Center is, No Tropical Development expected in the next 7 Days.
The environment in the Caribbean is currently not favorable for tropical development due to strong wind shear and a vast amount of sinking air.
However, the stronger wind and stabilizing and sinking air move out around the time the GFS show possible development.
Hurricane season ends November 30.