JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – We are just days away from the last month of Hurricane Season, which ends on Nov. 30. However, there has been a consistent chance for a disturbance in the tropics during the first week in November.
Disturbance chances
According to the National Hurricane Center, a disturbance is currently located in the Southwest Caribbean Sea. There is a 40% chance of development for the system over the next seven days.
Long-term models have shown that a disturbance could occur but the direction and location have been inconsistent which is normal for long-term forecasting, especially for hurricanes and tropical storms.
An area of low pressure will continue to slowly develop but will likely become a tropical depression.
Too soon to say, but something to think about
Long-term weather models are inconsistent.
However, the commonly used GFS model, shows the disturbance continuing to organize, dropping below 1000 mb by the end of the week.
It would then potentially move through the Caribbean Sea toward the area of Cuba and Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic). It could become a hurricane this weekend.
This could change
The potential long-term forecast has the storm moving toward the area of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. It could then move northwest toward Florida but did not make landfall before moving north along the Gulf Stream.
For now, Floridians and Georgians need to remember that this observation will likely change within the next seven days. However, it’s a friendly reminder that hurricane season is active and definitely not over.