JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – As of Thursday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center is now monitoring three areas of interest in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean.
First, the Southwestern Caribbean Sea system continues to show signs of development.
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two.
Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next several days across portions of the area from Nicaragua southeastward and eastward to northern Colombia.
As of Thursday afternoon, there’s a 60% chance of formation over the next 7 days. As of Wednesday, the chances of development were 40%.
The National Weather Service in Jacksonville said earlier in October, it is essential to understand that a threat originating from the Northwest Caribbean Sea or the Southeast Gulf of Mexico is not unusual for this time of year.
Climatologically, storms that develop in these regions often track across South Florida or (more likely) Cuba before moving across the Bahamas (Michelle in 2001 is a good example). However, there are exceptions to this pattern, as seen with storms like Kate in 1985 and Nicole in 2022.
Two other areas are now in focus, in the Northeastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles, a trough of low pressure near Puerto Rico is producing widespread cloudiness and showers over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern Leeward Islands, and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic and the northeastern Caribbean. Slow development of this system is possible during the next 2-3 days as it moves west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles.
After that time, this system is expected to be absorbed into the low-pressure area over the Caribbean. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next several days from the northern Leeward Islands westward across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas. Currently, there’s a 10% chance of formation over the next 2-7 days.
Next area is the North Atlantic where showers and thunderstorms have developed near the center of a storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located about 550 miles west of the western Azores. However, any additional development into a subtropical or tropical cyclone is expected to be slow to occur as the system moves eastward during the next few days. Currently, there’s a 20% chance of formation over the next 2-7 days.
The next named tropical cyclone will be Patty.