A batch of showers and thunderstorms in the central Caribbean Sea may develop into Tropical Storm Rafael soon. It does not have a circulation center or any storms rotating around it which is why is called Potential Tropical Cyclone 18.
Winds are very light on one half of the system but sustained winds near 35 mph have been seen in the showers from the reconnaissance flight.
It is over warm water which should help it grow into a hurricane by Wednesday south of Cuba.
No dynamical models should it hitting Peninsula Florida with a track toward the central Gulf. However, the long-range forecast brings great uncertainty where it could make landfall late in the week.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by late Monday.
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and southern Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches expected. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States mid to late week.
STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica on Monday and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday.
SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office.