A batch of showers and thunderstorms in the central Caribbean Sea developed into Tropical Storm Rafael on Monday evening.
The storm is located 175 Miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, with 45 mph sustained winds and moving north at 9 mph.
The storm is over warm water, which should help it grow into a hurricane by Wednesday south of Cuba.
The path takes it near Jamaica on Monday night, near or over the Cayman Islands by late Tuesday, and across western Cuba on Wednesday.
After that time, when the system reaches the Gulf of Mexico, there is a high amount of uncertainty later in the week due to the forecast models diverging. However, no dynamical models show it hitting Peninsula Florida with a track toward the central Gulf.
Potential Hazards
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon and are possible in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by this evening and are possible in central Cuba on Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches, and up to 9 inches locally, are expected. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States during the mid-to-late week.