Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 77.2 West. The storm is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph. A northwestward motion is expected to begin later Monday night and is forecast to continue for the next few days.
The system is expected to move near Jamaica late Monday night, be near or over the Cayman Islands late Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid strengthening is now forecast and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb.
Based on the current forecast and track, Rafael will have limited effects locally. Rain is expected on Wednesday and Thursday.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon and are possible in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by late tonight and are possible in central Cuba and in the lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches, and up to 9 inches locally, are expected. Flooding and mudslides could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba. Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States mid to late week.
STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight. Storm surge could raise water levels by 1-3 feet above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at high tide.
Dry Tortugas: 1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys: 1-2 ft
SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.