The system is 105 miles E of Grand Cayman Island with maximum sustained winds at 70 mph with higher gusts.
Right now, Rafael is moving northwest and is expected to pass near the Cayman Islands and then over western Cuba.
After it moves past Cuba, there are two possible paths Rafael might take in the Gulf of Mexico. Some forecasts show it heading north toward the Gulf Coast, while others predict it could turn west across the Gulf. Because it’s unclear which path is more likely, the forecast from the NHC is keeping Rafael moving slowly in the northern central Gulf.
Rafael has good conditions to strengthen and could become a hurricane. However, once it moves into the Gulf, it will face strong winds, dry air, and cooler water, which should weaken it before making landfall.
The system will not impact the peninsula of Florida due to the ridge steering the tropical storm west of the state but it is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. A weaker storm would likely track it farther west in the Gulf between Alabama and Texas by the weekend.
We are also watching a trough of low pressure that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. Portions of this system are forecast to move westward during the next day or so and could form a low pressure near the northern Leeward by Thursday.
Afterward, some slow development of this system is possible during the latter part of the week while it moves generally westward over the southwestern Atlantic.
The formation chance through 48 hours is 10 percent and the formation chance through 7 days is 30 percent.