Hurricane Rafael has reached Category 3 status with sustained winds at 115 mph as of 2 pm Wednesday.
Rafael is nearing the Gulf of Mexico.
The system will not impact the Florida peninsula due to a high-pressure ridge steering the tropical storm west of the state.
Models are now suggesting the hurricane might never reach the United States.
During the latter part of the forecast period, it appears that a mid-level ridge could build to the north of the tropical cyclone, forcing Rafael to turn to the west or south of west this weekend.
This is a big shift from earlier projections showing a landfall from Louisiana to Texas and needs to be watched for further confirmation in future model runs.
Moreover, hostile weather conditions in the Gulf are expected to develop making strengthening less favorable and Hurricane Rafael could weaken before any potential landfall.
We are also watching a trough of low pressure producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms east-northeast of the Leeward Islands.
This system is expected to move generally westward during the next few days, and an area of low pressure could form near the northern Leeward Islands tonight or Thursday.
Afterward, some gradual development of this system is possible toward the end of the week and into the early part of the weekend while it moves near or to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and approaches the Southeast Bahamas.
Other notable November Category 3 hurricanes in recorded history include:
- Eta and Iota, 2020
- Otto, 2016
- Paloma, 2008
- Michelle, 2001
- Lenny, 1999
- Kate, 1985