The center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 86.2 West. Rafael is moving west-northwest near 9 mph. A turn toward the west is expected tonight with a slightly slower forward speed continuing through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph with higher gusts. Some small intensity fluctuations are possible.
Weakening is forecast to begin Friday and continue through the weekend.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb.
What about that other spot?
Near the Leeward Islands, a trough of low pressure continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves westward near the Greater Antilles. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas through Saturday.
The formation chance through 48 hours remains at 20 percent and the formation chance through 7 days is down to 20 percent.