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Compact Rafael expected to meander further into the Gulf and weaken

Hurricane Rafael Friday Morning

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The National Hurricane Center‘s latest advisory on Category 2 Hurricane Rafael showed a compact cyclone that continued to bounce around the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

Rafael is moving toward the west near 9 mph. A slower west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so. After that, Rafael is expected to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through early next week.

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Although the waters are still relatively warm over the Gulf of Mexico, a combination of increasing westerly vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air should promote steady to rapid weakening during the next few days. The intensity models are in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is a touch lower than the previous one. Rafael is forecast to fall below hurricane strength on Saturday and degenerate into a remnant low in three to four days.

Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days. There are no coastal watches or warnings in place along the Gulf Coast; however, interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of Rafael.

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Near the Greater Antilles, disorganized showers and thunderstorms continued in association with a trough of low pressure that extends from the central Caribbean Sea northeastward across Hispaniola and into the southwestern Atlantic. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves westward near the Greater Antilles. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas through Saturday. The formation chance in the next 2-7 days is 20%.

The 2024 hurricane season officially ends on Nov. 30. If it were to happen, the next named cyclone would be Sara.


About the Author
Michelle McCormick headshot

Michelle McCormick joined News4Jax in December 2023 and in February 2024, she happily accepted the opportunity to officially join the News4Jax Weather Authority team as the weekend morning meteorologist. She is a member of both the American Meteorological Society and National Weather Association.

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