1000 PM Update: The disturbance was centered near
latitude 16.1 North, longitude 80.2 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 9 mph. A slow westward motion should
continue for another day or two, taking the system across the
western Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is expected to stall and
meander near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the
weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts.
The system is forecast to become a tropical storm on
Thursday and continue strengthening, if it remains over water.
Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb.
RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Thursday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.