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Tracking the Tropics: Florida could be seeing Sara soon. Here’s what you need to know

November hurricanes: a rare late-season threat for Florida

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JACKSONVILLE, FL – For most Floridians, the last month of hurricane season is typically quiet as cold fronts move in.

However, this November is different.

The unusually warm waters of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico have kept hurricane season active and a new tropical system could threaten parts of Florida a week before Thanksgiving.

While the official hurricane season ends on November 30, the formation of the third named storm has a 90% chance of forming within the next two days.

Currently, a tropical wave near Cuba is expected to interact with a low-pressure system in the southwestern Caribbean known as the Central American Gyre. This should seed the system into a dangerous storm.

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Central American Gyre position with GFS forecast isobars.

This system is forecast to move northward through the Gulf of Mexico by midweek, with potential impacts on the Florida Gulf Coast, the Keys, and western Cuba. The storm, which could be named “Sara,” may bring heavy rain and high winds to these areas by the weekend.

A Strong Development Pattern

The conditions for storm development are unusually favorable for this late in the season. Sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean are near-record highs, between 84°F and 86°F, which provide the energy needed for rapid intensification.

Deep warm water in red covers the Caribbean Sea.

In addition, wind shear—the change in wind direction with altitude—is expected to be low over the southern Gulf, allowing the storm to strengthen. If the system continues to develop, it could become a major hurricane, similar to Rafael, which reached Category 3 strength last week.

Light favorable upper winds in red cover the western Caribbean which will favor it becoming a named tropical cyclone.
Intensity forecasts call for a strong Cat. 2 strength by Saturday night.

Historical Context

Strong hurricanes in November are rare, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico. However, they do happen. For example, Hurricane Kate in 1985 became the most powerful November hurricane to hit the Gulf, making landfall near Mexico Beach just days before Thanksgiving.

After Hurricane Kate made landfall in Cuba in November 1985, it began to strengthen quickly, becoming a Category 3 and reaching its peak intensity of 120 mph (195 km/h) the following day.On November 21, a cold front moving across the Mississippi Valley resulted in a north and eventual northeast turn of the cyclone, and on November 22, Kate came ashore near Mexico Beach, Florida, as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds.
All November hurricanes around Florida. Kate made landfall in Mexico Beach in 1985 and Nichole hit the Treasure Coast in 2022 as a category 1.

While the storm’s path isn’t yet certain, current models suggest that the storm could curve toward southern Florida or western Cuba, with North Florida less likely to see direct impacts.

What to Expect

For North Florida residents, the risk of a direct hit remains low, as the storm’s path is more likely to affect areas further south. Given the warm waters and favorable atmospheric conditions, it’s likely to become a hurricane in the Caribbean Sea by the weekend.


About the Author
Mark Collins headshot

After covering the weather from every corner of Florida and doing marine research in the Gulf, Mark Collins settled in Jacksonville to forecast weather for The First Coast.

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