JACKSONVILLE, FL – For most Floridians, the last month of hurricane season is typically quiet as cold fronts move in.
However, this November is different.
The unusually warm waters of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico have kept hurricane season active and a new tropical system could threaten parts of Florida a week before Thanksgiving.
While the official hurricane season ends on November 30, the formation of the third named storm has a 90% chance of forming within the next two days.
Currently, a tropical wave near Cuba is expected to interact with a low-pressure system in the southwestern Caribbean known as the Central American Gyre. This should seed the system into a dangerous storm.
This system is forecast to move northward through the Gulf of Mexico by midweek, with potential impacts on the Florida Gulf Coast, the Keys, and western Cuba. The storm, which could be named “Sara,” may bring heavy rain and high winds to these areas by the weekend.
A Strong Development Pattern
The conditions for storm development are unusually favorable for this late in the season. Sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean are near-record highs, between 84°F and 86°F, which provide the energy needed for rapid intensification.
In addition, wind shear—the change in wind direction with altitude—is expected to be low over the southern Gulf, allowing the storm to strengthen. If the system continues to develop, it could become a major hurricane, similar to Rafael, which reached Category 3 strength last week.
Historical Context
Strong hurricanes in November are rare, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico. However, they do happen. For example, Hurricane Kate in 1985 became the most powerful November hurricane to hit the Gulf, making landfall near Mexico Beach just days before Thanksgiving.
While the storm’s path isn’t yet certain, current models suggest that the storm could curve toward southern Florida or western Cuba, with North Florida less likely to see direct impacts.
What to Expect
For North Florida residents, the risk of a direct hit remains low, as the storm’s path is more likely to affect areas further south. Given the warm waters and favorable atmospheric conditions, it’s likely to become a hurricane in the Caribbean Sea by the weekend.