Highlights:
Key changes
- Tropical Storm Sara formed this afternoon.
- Track heads further west spending the weekend near or over land in Honduras and Nicaragua.
- Hurricane risk to Florida is improbable next week.
It is more likely that Florida will benefit from the protection of a strong autumn cold front next week when the storm (expected to be named Tropical Storm Sara) lifts into the Gulf of Mexico.
Heavy rain from Tropical Storm Sara will be drawn into the cold front, resulting in one day of rain as it zips down the Florida peninsula Wednesday.
The Latest
As of 1 p.m. Thursday, the center of the tropical depression was located about 205 miles east-southeast of Honduras, with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph. It was moving westward at nearly 12 mph and is expected to meander near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend.
Heavy Rain Expected in Central America
Heavy rain from the developing storm will cause flooding in Central America as it strengthens. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are possible early next week across Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua. 20-30 inches of rain is expected as steering winds collapse over the weekend keeping the topical system nearly parked.
Weekend Outlook
Florida can expect dry, cool, and sunny weather this weekend. The tropical storm moves near the eastern coast of Honduras on late Friday or Saturday and the National Hurricane Center does not forecast the system to get stronger than 65 mph winds.
Favorable conditions for strengthening the system will not be present in the Gulf of Mexico, which will prevent the system from reorganizing into a strong tropical storm or hurricane over the Gulf next week.
What to Expect Next Week
After the system weakens due to land interaction, it is not expected to reorganize significantly. Rain is expected to move into Florida for one day next Wednesday. This rain will be funneled into a cold front that will quickly usher drier air across the state on Thursday.
The front will cause high shearing winds, which could destroy any organized tropical storm. Any tropical aspects of the system would resemble more of a hybrid feature. This essentially equates to a stronger cold front, with gusty winds around 30-40 mph expected both ahead of and behind the front.