JACKSONVILLE, FL – Good news for Florida: hurricane season is effectively over for the state this year.
While Tropical Storm Sara initially raised concerns, the storm is expected to dissipate, with no significant potential for redevelopment in the Gulf of Mexico.
This weekend, Floridians can enjoy sunny, cooler weather, thanks to a reinforcing cold front set to arrive on Wednesday. This same cold front will help ensure that Sara never gains hurricane status, keeping the system disorganized and unable to pose a threat to Florida beyond a rainy Wednesday.
Sara’s Current Impact and Forecast
As of Friday, Tropical Storm Sara is primarily a concern for Central America, where heavy rainfall is causing significant flooding. The storm has tracked westward over land, with its northern edge brushing coastal waters near Honduras.
With maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, Sara’s strength is expected to diminish as it continues westward into Belize over the weekend. While its wind speeds are declining, the slow-moving nature of the storm near mountainous terrain poses a serious risk of flash flooding and mudslides through the weekend.
Shear and Terrain: Key Factors in Weakening Sara
Several factors are working against Tropical Storm Sara’s ability to intensify:
- Wind Shear: Strong upper-level winds are disrupting the storm’s structure, preventing the development of a well-organized core.
- Mountainous Terrain: As Sara interacts with the rugged terrain of Honduras and surrounding areas, its circulation core is being disrupted further. However, the storm is quite dangerous. The upslope flow caused by the storm’s movement over high elevations is enhancing rainfall, with totals potentially reaching 20 inches in some areas.
Florida’s Role in Sara’s Demise
After Sara breaks down over Central America, the remaining tropical moisture is expected to lift northward into the Gulf of Mexico steered by southwest flow feeding into an approaching cold front. By mid-week, The frontal boundary will sweep down Florida, pushing this moisture eastward and eliminating any chance of redevelopment.
While the front itself will bring gusty winds of 20–30 mph and brief, heavy downpours to parts of North Florida on Wednesday, none of the forecast models suggest that Sara will affect the state as a tropical cyclone.
This marks a notable shift from earlier in the week when Sara appeared to pose a greater threat. For now, residents can take solace in a quiet end to hurricane season and look forward to enjoying cooler, pleasant weather over the weekend.
Looking Ahead
For Floridians, the focus shifts to enjoying cooler fall weather and preparing for the next cold front mid-week. With Sara dissipating and no new tropical threats on the horizon, the season appears to be winding down weeks before its official ending date November 30.