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Christmas Forecast

From weekend frost to spring-like temps

Mild air blankets Florida on Christmas.

JACKSONVILLE, FLA – As Jacksonville gears up for the holiday week, the weather is taking center stage, offering a dynamic shift just in time for Christmas.

Following a cold prelude this weekend, where highs will struggle to climb out of the 50s, milder air will stage a comeback, bringing temperatures to the lower 70s on December 25th.

Christmas high temperatures.

This change erases any potential for morning frost like we could see Sunday morning and instead brings in the potential for rain on Christmas Day.

Looking ahead, warmth becomes the trendsetter as highs climb into the 70s from Wednesday through the following weekend, courtesy of a southerly flow that nudges away the preceding cool spell. The extended forecast hints at a few spring-like afternoons to wrap up 2024.

GFS ensemble forecast high temps (yellow bars) and lows temps in blue.

But here’s where the models play their holiday guessing game: the GFS (Global Forecast System) suggests rain could accompany Santa’s sleigh ride over Jacksonville on Christmas Day, potentially dampening outdoor plans.

Rain forecast on December 25.

Meanwhile, the Euro model isn’t buying it; instead, it is painting a drier picture for the holiday.

EURO pushes the weather into the Atlantic by Christmas.

Jacksonville finds itself in the tug-of-war between these forecasts, for now, the timing seems right we will be seeing some rain on Christmas.


About the Author
Mark Collins headshot

After covering the weather from every corner of Florida and doing marine research in the Gulf, Mark Collins settled in Jacksonville to forecast weather for The First Coast.

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