JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – With all the buzz around an Arctic blast making its way from Canada to the southern states, everyone seems to be wondering — will it snow in Florida? And maybe even in Jacksonville?
The Weather Authority is monitoring rain forecasted for Monday, although the temperatures will be in the mid-to-upper 60s that day. These temperatures don’t support any frozen precipitations.
However, people on social media are saying that based on the current models, we could have snow in Florida late next week. But is that really the case? Probably not.
While an arctic air mass is expected to bring colder temperatures to the eastern United States, including northern Florida, with lows potentially near freezing, the forecasted temperatures in Jacksonville are not expected to be low enough to support snowfall. Plus, you need precipitation to have snow.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center wrote in their Jan.1, 2025, Prognostic Discussions Valid: Jan 07 - 11, 2025 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jan 09 - 15, 2025 (8-14 Day Outlook), “favor colder-than-normal temperatures across much of the eastern and south-central U.S. The largest probabilities (more than 80 percent) are forecast from the Ohio Valley southeastward to the Carolinas, Georgia, and northeastern Florida where the GEFS and ECENS feature 7-day temperatures averaging near 15 degrees below normal.”
NOAA goes on to say, “closer to the Gulf Coast and across Florida, above-normal precipitation probabilities increase due to the potential for low-pressure development near the Gulf Coast.”
While temperatures may be cooler than usual, snow is not anticipated in Jacksonville next week.
But there is a very, very small chance of snow somewhere in Florida.
With a potential low-pressure system developing in the Gulf of Mexico early next week, models are showing heavy rains in areas of Louisiana as the arctic air reaches south into Texas and Northern Louisiana. This system is tracking to the south along the Gulf Coast by mid-week. Should development occur, freezing precipitation is possible in the Panhandle early Friday morning.
In Atlanta, there’s a chance of snow, sleet and freezing rain late on Friday night, Jan. 10.
Looking ahead 8-10 days is like forecasting landfall for a hurricane that far out. Keep in mind, that models are used for guidance, they aren’t written in stone.
The last time it snowed in Jacksonville was on Dec. 23, 1989. The historic event resulted when arctic air pushed temperatures below freezing through Florida with ice accumulating down to Miami.