Tropical Trouble Brewing in the Atlantic: NHC Eyes Central Atlantic Disturbance
Published: June 23, 2025 | By Meteorologist Katie Garner
The National Hurricane Center is tracking a disturbance in the central Atlantic that has caught forecasters’ attention this week. Designated as “Disturbance 1,” the system now has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next seven days.
The broad area of low pressure is located several hundred miles east of Bermuda, embedded in a region of relatively low wind shear and marginally warm sea surface temperatures—enough to support gradual organization. Satellite imagery shows some increasing shower and thunderstorm activity, though the system remains disorganized for now.
What’s Next?
The NHC’s seven-day outlook places the area of concern in a zone where slow development is possible as the disturbance drifts northward to northeastward over open waters. While there’s no immediate threat to land, this system could become the first named storm of the season if it continues to consolidate. If so, it would earn the name Alberto, kicking off the 2025 Atlantic hurricane naming list.
Forecasters are keeping a close eye on this feature, not only due to its development potential but also because it serves as an early-season signal that the Main Development Region (MDR) is beginning to awaken. Typically, June systems form closer to the Gulf or Caribbean, so any central Atlantic development this early can be a sign that the basin is warming up ahead of schedule—especially in a season projected to be hyperactive due to La Niña conditions.
What It Means for You
There is no immediate threat to the U.S. East Coast or Caribbean at this time. This disturbance is expected to remain over the open ocean. However, the NHC will issue updates as needed, and mariners should monitor conditions if planning transatlantic routes.
The 2025 hurricane season officially began on June 1, and this is a timely reminder to review your hurricane plans and emergency kits. The season is long, and with conditions increasingly favorable for tropical activity, it’s best to stay one step ahead of the storm.
Meteorologist’s Note:This kind of early central Atlantic activity doesn’t necessarily guarantee a storm will develop, but it’s a sign that the ingredients are aligning sooner rather than later. Stay weather aware—we’re just getting started.