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..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ,

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 05N09W and extends to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 15W and 34W.

Gulf Of Mexico

Broad ridging dominates the Gulf of Mexico, supporting moderate or weaker E winds and moderate seas across the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE winds will prevail over the Gulf of Mexico through tonight as ridging extends over the basin. Strong high pressure in the central United States will drift slowly eastward early this week, resulting in moderate E to SE winds late tonight into Tue. Looking ahead, a cold front will move through the south-central United States by midweek, and fresh SE winds will develop in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico late Wed ahead of the front.

Caribbean Sea

A cold front extends from the Windward Passage to 16N83W, and a stationary front continues through northern Honduras. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is occurring over the north- central Caribbean near the front. A surface trough has been analyzed over eastern Hispaniola, and scattered moderate convection is noted east of the boundary over Puerto Rico. Elsewhere, the eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough is initiating scattered moderate to locally strong convection offshore of Panama and Colombia, south of 12N.

The pressure gradient between a strong ridge over the central United States and the aforementioned front support fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft west of a line extending from Haiti to northern Panama. The strongest winds and highest seas are found in the Windward Passage and in the waters surrounding the San Andres and Providencia Islands. Moderate to locally fresh E winds and seas of 4-6 ft are present in the SE Caribbean, while moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds are expected across the western Caribbean today behind the aforementioned cold front before the front dissipates tonight. Locally strong NE winds will be possible through the Windward Passage this morning. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E winds will prevail over the eastern basin. High pressure will build over eastern Mexico this week, and low pressure over northern Colombia will strengthen. The increasing pressure gradient between these features will lead to fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across much of the basin through midweek. Pulsing strong winds are expected through the Windward Passage, downwind of southwestern Cuba and offshore of Colombia, and rough seas will be possible near strong winds. Winds and seas will slowly diminish by late week.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 31N62W and extends southwestward through the Windward Passage. Moderate or weaker N winds and moderate to rough seas are found west of the front. A trough is noted to the east, from 31N61W to eastern Hispaniola. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near the trough, north of 26N between 58W and 62W. A second cold front extends from 31N68W to 29N80W, and moderate N to NE winds are noted behind the front. Elsewhere, a 1022 mb high is centered near 28N47W, and moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds are occurring between 55W and 60W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a robust subtropical ridge positioned NE of the Azores. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and lower pressures in western Africa and the deep tropics support strong to near gale-force NE-E winds north of 17N and east of 32W. Rough seas are found in these waters, peaking near 13 ft north of the Canary Islands. Farther south, moderate to locally fresh E trade winds and moderate seas are present between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, south of 20N. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold fronts will progress eastward early this week, and moderate NW winds will occur behind the fronts through tonight. Farther east, fresh SE to S winds will occur north of 25N and east of 60W this morning along the periphery of a 1022 mb high in the central Atlantic. The high will weaken and drift eastward this week. South of 20N, moderate to briefly fresh trades will prevail through midweek. Troughing will develop east of the Bahamas today into Mon, then drift westward toward the east coast of Florida by late Mon, while low pressure develops off the coast of the southeastern United States. Strengthening high pressure in the central United States will drift eastward, and the tightening pressure gradient between these features will result in widespread fresh to strong NE winds and very rough seas north of the Greater Antilles between 60W and 72W Mon morning, with winds and seas developing farther west across the Bahamas by Mon night. Winds and seas will diminish Tue night into early Wed.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Adams