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Tropical Waves

A tropical wave axis is in the E Atlantic along 29W from 03N to 15N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic has an axis along 46W from 02N to 14W, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection associated with this wave extends from 04N to 09N between 37W and 47W.

A tropical wave axis is in the E Caribbean along 65W S of 17N into Venezuela, moving W at around 10 kt. Convection associated with this wave has diminished this evening.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the W coast of Africa near 10N14W and continues WSW to 07N26W. There are three segments of ITCZ, separated by Atlantic tropical waves described in the above sections. These segments are noted from 07N26W to 08N29W, 08N32W to 07N42W, and from 06N48W to 07N58W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N E of 21W.

Gulf Of America

A weak surface trough has formed offshore the coast of Mexico from NE of Tampico to E of Veracruz. This feature combined with moisture and upper level divergence associated with Eastern Pacific Hurricane Erick, is supporting scattered moderate convection across the Bay of Campeche and adjacent portions of the SW Gulf. A surface trough that had previously been positioned in the NE basin has dissipated earlier this evening. Overall, the winds in the Gulf are being dominated by subtropical ridging centered in the SW Atlantic, leading to gentle winds in the NE basin, and moderate to fresh SE winds in the southern and western basin. A surge of E winds has emerged from the NW Yucatan Peninsula, in association with a westward-moving diurnal trough. Seas in NE half of the bas are less than 3 ft, with 3 to 6 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will pulse each afternoon and evening over the next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops and tracks westward across the region. Moderate to fresh southerly return flow and moderate seas are expected over the central and western Gulf through Sun night. Gentle to locally moderate SE winds and slight seas are forecast to prevail across the eastern half of the basin.

Caribbean Sea

A broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic continues to support strong easterly trade winds over the central Caribbean Sea. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft (2.5-3.5 m). Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 6-8 ft (2-2.5 m) are also ongoing in the Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are prevalent in the eastern and NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over portions of the western Caribbean W of 80W in association with upper level divergence from Eastern Pacific Hurricane Erick.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge over the Atlantic waters north of the Caribbean and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas over the central Caribbean through the the remainder of the week and the weekend. Winds will pulse to near gale force off Colombia at night. Fresh to strong trades, and rough seas, are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Thu. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail.

Atlantic Ocean

A broad ridge centered along 29N continues to dominate the entire subtropical and tropical Atlantic waters. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas to 6 ft are noted off northern Hispaniola and at the entrance of the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh easterly trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate waters S of 25N, with moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas to the N.

For the forecast west of 55W, ridge of high pressure will prevail along 29N. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas are forecast south of the ridge through the forecast period. Locally strong winds will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night into late this week. Gentle to locally moderate winds will prevail elsewhere.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik