Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 10N18W. The ITCZ extends from 10N18W to 00N30W to 01N40W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 01N to 04N between 08W and 20W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A line of strong thunderstorms continues to move across the northwest Gulf off Louisiana and northern Texas. This activity is starting to weaken, but frequent lightning, strong gusts, and locally rough seas are ongoing. Moderate SE flow is evident elsewhere between 1021 mb high pressure over the western Atlantic and a trough over central Mexico. Combined seas across the Gulf are generally 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high-pressure system will weaken over the next few days, resulting in diminishing winds and decreasing seas across the basin. Elsewhere, winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula and south- central Gulf each evening through the forecast period.

Caribbean Sea

Recent buoy observations along with scatterometer satellite data indicate mostly moderate to fresh winds across the central Caribbean, the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras. An earlier altimeter satellite pass indicated seas to 8 ft off Belize, but nearby buoy data indicates seas are likely 5 to 7 ft currently across the northeast Caribbean. Combined seas are likely 4 to 6 ft elsewhere across the basin. No significant convection is noted across the basin.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area over the western Atlantic will gradually weaken over the next few days. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds at night in the Gulf of Honduras, Windward Passage and offshore southern Hispaniola will diminish by Wed. Northerly swell will support rough seas through the passages in the NE Caribbean through Wed. Otherwise, gentle to moderate easterly winds are forecast for the eastern half of the Caribbean Thu and Fri while light to gentle winds will dominate elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

A few showers and thunderstorms are active along a cold front that extends from 31N42W to 21N53W. Fresh to strong NW winds and 8 to 13 ft seas follow the front north of 25N and reach as far west as 65W. Fresh to strong S to SW winds and 6 to 7 ft are evident within 90 nm east of the front. Farther west, 1021 mb high pressure area is centered near 30N70W, supporting fresh winds NE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas south of 22N. Gentle to moderate and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere west of the front. Gentle to moderate trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere over the tropical Atlantic west of 35W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are noted east of 35W over the eastern Atlantic, south of a strong ridge over of the Azores.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NW winds behind the cold front will continue to affect the waters north of 28N between 55W and 65W through Tue evening. Long period northerly swell with peak seas to 13 ft will start subsiding this evening as the front continues to shift eastward. Fresh to locally strong winds will continue over the waters south of 23N and west of 70W through late today, especially in the approaches of the Windward Passage. More tranquil marine conditions are expected afterwards as high pressure becomes centered over the NW waters.

Posted 1 hour, 8 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen