Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough is analyzed over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 03N16W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection south of 06N and west of 25W.

Gulf Of Mexico

The pressure gradient between a 1034 mb high pressure system near New England and lower pressures over the central United States and Mexico result in fresh to strong SE winds across much of the Gulf of Mexico. Seas in these waters are mainly moderate. The upper level trough over the central United States support widespread mid to upper level cloudiness over most of the basin. However, no deep convection is observed on satellite imagery.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a strong ridge in the NW Atlantic and lower pressures in the central US and Mexico will support fresh to strong southeast winds over much of the Gulf through Sun night. Seas are expected to peak near 10 ft in the NW and central Gulf today and Sun. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through the forecast period.

Caribbean Sea

A combination of a surface trough that extends across eastern Hispaniola and an upper level trough over the western Atlantic result in scattered moderate convection affecting the eastern Greater Antilles and surrounding waters. Heavy rains and flooding have been occurring in Hispaniola during the last week or so. It is possible that continual amounts of rain may help to increase the chances for flash flooding in inland areas, especially in hilly terrain and in low-lying areas. Please, refer to bulletins from your local weather service offices for more details about this event. Meanwhile, generally dry conditions are noted in the NW Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between a strong ridge in the NW Atlantic and lower pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the Windward Passage, lee of Cuba, off southern Hispaniola and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft and forecast to build to 9 ft later today. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and seas of 3-5 ft are present in the south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a strong high pressure system centered off New England will force fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras, lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through early next week. Seas will peak near 9 ft during the strongest winds. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will prevail in the rest of the basin. Northerly swell will push seas to 8 ft through the water passages in the NE Caribbean early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough extends from 31N59W to eastern Hispaniola. A few showers are seen near the trough. The 1034 mb high pressure off New England sustain fresh to strong N-NE winds behind the surface trough, with the strongest winds occurring between the central and SE Bahamas and Cuba. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. The remainder of the basin is under a broad subtropical ridge centered near the Azores, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast, surface trough extends from 31N59W to 19N69W. The cold front north of the area will merge with the surface trough this morning and the front will reach from near 25N55W to Hispaniola by Sun morning, then stall and weaken over the far southeastern part late Sun through Mon night. North swell behind the front will build seas to a peak of 12 ft over northeast offshore waters by Sun. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will result in fresh to strong north to northeast winds behind the front from tonight through Sun. By late Sun, fresh winds will prevail in the wake of the weakening front and continue through Mon. Tranquil conditions are expected Tue as high pressure becomes centered over the NW part of the offshore waters, with the induced gradient supporting fresh northeast to east winds over the southern waters.

Posted 1 hour, 28 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado